As we quickly approach the mid-way point of 2024, it’s prudent not only to look back on how far we’ve come since the beginning of the year, but also to cast our gaze into the horizon as we venture off into the second half of the year with optimism. Looking at the grandfather off all cryptocurrencies again; Bitcoin, we can gauge and estimation on how the remaining months of 2024 may play-out leading into 2025 not only for BTC, but for the entire cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Currently we’re holding cleanly above the 2021 All Time High’s, despite this last weeks sell-off. Many may speculate why the sell-off has happened, market participants historically always ponder “What news caused this sell-off” or a commonly coined term in the Crypto space you may have heard is “FUD”, translating to Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. While it’s common for beginner traders and investors to latch onto such narratives to justify price-action after-the-fact, the reasoning for such price volatility isn’t always what it seems, let’s take a look at why. At the Beginning of June since our last BTC Price Action update in May, we’ve had BTC sell off twice since hitting local resistance at $71,663.
This level is important for the current structure we reside in because it’s the last high that was made before we lost local trend in late-April where we had the last sell off that sent us sliding down to the ~ $57,000 range. Although it recovered as it didn’t lose any major support on higher-time frames, within a Daily Time Frame that’s more localised, it however had lost support, meaning the high where trend was still in-tact that preceded the swing low is our local resistance. While it would be nice to slam through this resistance and carry-on to green pastures, sometimes within a localised timeframe, trend needs to still be respected too before we’re ready to move to higher ground. As you can see, we’re still holding those lows we made in late April for now, which is a good sign that trend is still Bullish to the upside in the medium-long term. Let’s take a look at
another potential Bullish set-up structure we also could be seeing play-out in real-time on the weekly.
Over the coming months, it’s possible we could see a continuation of this buying and selling stalemate between the Bulls and Bears, however with that being said it would actually be incredibly useful at these price levels in the long run. This is because it would result in something called “accumulation” and done in the correct way with the appropriate structure at the right point in time it allows us to re-gain momentum before figuratively blasting-off! A pattern we’ve mention before is a Bull-Flag, and again we can see the potential beginnings of one forming over the last few weeks on the critical Weekly Timeframe.
Typically a Bull-flag will need to have a few more touches on both the top and bottom of its respective channels, ergo; we’ll need to keep waiting a while longer before you may see a significant increase in volatility and break to the upside. This very rough estimate of time projection would land us somewhere in late Q3-early Q4 before a breakout could happen.
Historically, points in time of accumulation, over a multitude of different patterns and setups, including but not limited to Bull-Flag setups have been an opportune time to buy Bitcoin and add to your position. One way or another, periods of lowered volatility are preceded by higher volatility sooner or later, an inevitability that’s only a matter of time. until then, we must use the tools at our disposal to judge how we maximise the time in-between so that when an irrational market returns, we’re on the right side of it.
Written by James Ryan
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