Bitcoin 2022 - World's largest bitcoin gathering marks growing adoption

29.04.22 01:28 AM By Stormrake


The Rake Review: April 2022

Welcome to the Stormrake Monthly Australian crypto market & education update.
For sophisticated investors who want to expand their crypto knowledge.

Summary:

If you are a busy investor that doesn't have time to read this whole newsletter here is a brief summary:

* 30,000 turn up for world's largest bitcoin conference in Miami
* New countries adopt bitcoin as the dominoes continue to fall
* XRP and LUNA outperform in a sluggish market as lows get retested
* Inflation marches on and spreads as stagflation emerges
* Regulatory progress as more politicians realise their electorates own crypto

or Read below for all the detail.



Bitcoin Miami 2022

This month we travelled to the US to be at the largest bitcoin conference the world has ever seen. We didn't expect the sheer magnitude of the event we witnessed.

You have to understand that we've been around for quite a while in the crypto space and in the past, a bitcoin gathering, meant catching up with a few highly intelligent, slightly eccentric, passionate men that hadn't been out in public for quite some time. That might not be entirely fair, but you certainly wouldn't see the sexes equally represented.

Bitcoin 2022 was held at the enormous Miami Convention Centre, a 130,000m2 space, almost double the size of the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition centre. The 3 level area with multiple stages, an exhibition hall, meeting areas, lounges and events including an outdoor festival area were all buzzing with delegates rushing from stage to stage. To see this jungle of bitcoiners was spectacular and a far cry from Melbourne meetups. There were real "normies" mixing with bitcoin OG's. There was a full festival on the last day featuring the worlds best DJ's. There was a multitude of side events completely swamping Miami beach. Everywhere we went, bitcoiners were already there. If all that doesn't tell you that bitcoin adoption is ramping up I don't know what will. 

* Packed Main Stage (Nakamoto Stage) - This is a small part of the main hall. There were 3 other stages.

* Same stage 2 days later for Deadmaus5 live - This is not how I remember crypto meetups. Deadmaus5 has released a new track called "Hypnocurrency".

Key Takeouts:

1. Adoption is here


We've already discussed above that the conference turnout alone shows growing adoption as regular people invest and learn about bitcoin. But it's not just individuals joining the revolution. Multiple politicians attended the conference including Wyomings Cynthia Lumis and Miami governor Ron DeSantis. Unfortunately El Salvador's president Bukele was unable to attend due to pressing issues back home. What I heard was that one after the other politicians across the political spectrum and both state and federal were being "orange pilled" (shown the way) towards bitcoin advocacy. Cynthia specifically, has done a brilliant job in her home state via legislation but also helping win over opinion in Washington on how to handle crypto regulation. Internationally, more countries are adopting bitcoin and we have more on that in the news section.

In Banking, we heard that even more banks are opening up services for their clients to store and trade cryptocurrency. Some are also setting up funds and managed investments for crypto. In 2017 Banks were yet to get onboard but in 2022 every single bank is forced to have a strategy in place.


2. Future of Payments


While Bitcoin has already proven itself as a store of value in my mind, it is yet to become a primary payment method. While we paid for our conference tickets in Bitcoin and tipped in Bitcoin in Miami its still not the accepted payment method. Jack Mallers made a splash on the Natamoto stage by announcing Strike has partnered with shopify and signed major retail partnerships allowing for the strike payments app to be used in over 30% of US shops. His app is easy to use and smashes the competition on price because it uses bitcoin in the backend to transfer money instantly and cheaply. This will revolutionise payments as people will be able to use whatever currency they want to pay and the merchant will be able to receive whatever currency he wants all while saving money and doing it at the speed of light. There are already competitors out there and the incumbent payment processors must adapt or die. All this is possible through the lightning network. 
 

3. Lightning Network is here and it's going to be big. 


A key takeout was that every major crypto native company is considering using lightning in one way or another. We have discussed lightning network in our education section before but as a recap lightning network is a second layer network built on top of bitcoin. Without going into detail it allows for super cheap, lightning quick transactions significantly improving the range of functions bitcoin can serve. We recommend having a play with lightning through Muun wallet to see just how easy it is. 
 

4. Mortgages 


If you have Bitcoin but you don't have AUD you might soon be able to borrow 100% with no money down to buy a house. Now that's absolutely massive. This already exists in financial markets and margin lending but not for houses due to regulation. There are multiple startups in the US on the verge of solving the regulatory hurdles. This year people will start buying property with the ability to borrow 100% of the cost while using the property and some Bitcoin as collateral. The main reason that this is possible is that Bitcoin is "pristine collateral". More on that in the education section below.

Let's get into the news and events:






Video of the Month


Janet Yellen (Economist and former Chair of the Federal Reserve) a prominent former critic of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has had a huge change of heart. Previously quoted as saying Bitcoin is inefficient she now feels quite differently. She now says Nakamoto proposed a novel way to solve the double spend problem. All this is based on being forced to actually research bitcoin through her work for the Biden administrations regulatory review. It shows once again that naysayers can only exist prior to actually understanding bitcoin. 




Markets

Prices are down across the board this month. Bitcoin's total market capitalization is hanging around a familiar area above $750 Billion USD. ETH is back below $3000 currently trading $2938 USD. Solana is up a spot due to lower USDC issuance and Cardano has slipped out of the top8 and been replaced by LUNA which is something we predicted last month. We even focused our education piece on LUNA. XRP also pumped after Brad Garlinghouse (CEO) claimed the lawsuit brought by the SEC is going "exceedingly well"

* Top 8 Coins by Market Cap thanks to Coin Gecko

 

In the NEWS

 

1. Central African Republic (CAR) becomes world's 2nd country to make Bitcoin legal tender.

 
"Businessmen will no longer have to walk around with suitcases of CFA francs that will have to be converted into dollars or any other currency to make purchases abroad,"  - Economist Yann Daworo

CAR like many African countries (ala El Salvador) hasn't got its own currency. It has been on the French Franc due to its colonial past and that system has failed it. Making Bitcoin legal tender will allow anyone with a smartphone to pay and receive Bitcoin which is easily transferrable.  See this video from the Miami conference on the financial suppression suffered in the French colonies in Africa.

 
 

2. Panama passes crypto-positive legislation


Panama (Gateway between North and South America) is already known as a hub for offshore financial services and new legislation to allow bitcoin payments and investment could further strengthen Panamas position. To us, this is just another step in the unstoppable march of bitcoin adoption.

The bill opens the door to private and public use of crypto assets, and will make it possible for people to pay their taxes with cryptocurrencies. - Reuters
 

3. Inflation is setting in and rate hikes expected

 
Officially, inflation is the highest it's been since the 80s, US inflation is over 8%, Germany is over 7%, and Australia over 5%. As a result interest rates are expected to rise and with it the spectre of economic downturn. Yet the US GDP for Q1 2022 just came in at -1.4%.  High inflation with negative growth is technically stagflation.  This will make the FEDs choice difficult as another quarter of GDP decline would be a recession.  We have talked about where inflation came from ad nauseum yet it must be repeated that the money printing taken on by western governments is directly lowering the value of the dollar against everything. 
 

4. Market price action and expectations

 
If you have time watch the following podcast/video from Will Clemente. Plan B and Willy Woo discuss the state of the market and agree that the current Bitcoin price vs fundamental value is significantly undervalued, both from an on-chain analysis angle and a stock to flow angle. All the news is positive and the only thing holding back the next wave is futures trading from wholesale/banking. Just like the stock market if you sit on the sidelines on the wrong days you could miss all the profits but in crypto those profits could be astronomic. It's what we call an assymetric opportunity - limited downside and virtually unlimited upside. Don't be caught short according to the experts.
 

5. Musk looks to buy Twitter - Is that good for crypto?

 
50+ Billion USD buys Twitter for Elon Musk. A cursory look at twitter reveals that twitter users are already testing the waters on how far they can stretch free speech. You see, Musk has made the pursuit of free speech central to his reasoning for buying Twitter. Musk feels twitter has become way too heavy handed in blocking accounts for saying even the most innocuous of comments. This aligns quite well with bitcoins ethos around freedom. Most bitcoiners support a freer world, with a freer access to money, free speech and freedom of movement. Check out the Bitcoin declaration of monetary independence signed at Bitcoin 2022. 

Education: Pristine collateral and the future of credit


One of our key take outs from the Miami Bitcoin 2022 conference was the evolution of credit and how bitcoin is disrupting this because it is is the most pristine collateral ever conceived.
 

First let's consider the current mortgage market.

Most loans today, barely consider your assets. They care primarily about your income, expenses and liabilities. They are essentially a loan against your future income. It is difficult and messy for your bank to repossess and liquidate your assets and they will do anything to avoid this. Hence when you take out a loan, the banks do not consider your shares, art, business assets and especially crypto.
You might argue that equity unlock loans are an exception to this but these are very limited to age and LVR (loan to value ratios). The vast majority of loans today are against your future income, but in the crypto world, we are starting to see this change.  

The secret to this evolution is the pristine collateral property of bitcoin. Bitcoin is pristine collateral because:

  • It is the worlds most liquid asset, trading 24/7, 365 days a year in every global economy. Compare this to other "liquid" assets such as bonds, currencies, which must endure trading hours, bank holidays, market spreads & multi hops to change from asset X to Y.
  • It is not a sovereign asset. There is no risk of debasement, confiscation or censorship.
  • It is highly divisible, therefore can be partially and gradually liquidated. Compare this to a house, where the sale is binary. It can be fully sold, or not. Nothing in between.
  • It is a bearer asset, and can be held in pure custody, escrow or controlled via multi party access (multi-signature). There is no complicated, bureaucratic process to achieve liquidation. A simple, powerful, fast, and automatable process.
  • It offers instant, global, final settlement. No charge backs, clearance & settlement times. Internationally recognisable and transferrable.


If you have bitcoin as collateral then there is no need for the complication of looking into incomes and history as you have the worlds best and most pristine collateral.


The market for crypto backed loans will only increase.


The crypto market will only continue to grow and it will increasingly make more sense to borrow dollars and never sell you bitcoin, because

  • Selling Bitcoin can trigger a Capital Gains Tax (CGT) event and have tax implications
  • Bitcoin is increasing by 200% (10 year compound annual growth), while dollars are currently depreciating at 8%
  • The borrowing rate on dollars is artificially suppressed by the central banks (RBA target interest rate is currently 0.1% pa)
  • So long as dollars exist, you'll always pay to borrow the weaker currency and hold the stronger currency. When you go to the store with a pocket full of coins and a crisp note in your pocket, you'll always spend the coins first. Even if the currency is the same and note is the same value. Why? Because harder forms of currency are likely to hold their value better


We will continue to see a huge growth in this market as:

  • Lenders such as lednhoseki, and milocredit offer mortgages for 100% of the property value when crypto is used as additional collateral.
  • Other hybrid style loans will surely follow as more assets are tokenised.  Imagine if your portfolio of stocks, crypto, property could be combined for a diverse and secure collateral. This would significantly lower your default risk and improve your borrowing rate.
  • As bitcoin becomes a larger component of the global financial system, it will increasingly become a core part of peoples assets and hence necessary to consider as collateral.

Where is this all going?

If we see the adoption of a bitcoin standard, then then we'll likely see:

  • Property values reduce to be closer to their utility only
  • Stocks valued closer to their earnings and growth potential
  • A significant amount of wealth will be stored in bitcoin, causing significant demand for financial services to leverage this
  • An entire generation of incredible financial services that build upon the exponentially improving technology in the DeFi space. Financial friction will only decrease from here


We're early in this journey but the future of credit is bright!

Also watch this video if you want to see a panel in the mortgage/lending market from Bitcoin Miami 2022 conference.


Stock to Flow Valuation:


As the news cycle marches on and markets fluctuate the Bitcoin price continues to follow the outspiral graph below. The price has never crossed itself on a 4 year cycle. 



Monthly Memes
 


 




Until next month, Happy Investing!

Stormrake Team

custody@stormrake.com



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