Macro Olympics Will Bring Volatility

12.12.22 12:13 AM By Stormrake

Bitcoin has been stuck in a near 3% range for the entire month of December, this tight range is set to be broken as the macro olympics commence. This includes headline inflation print out of the US and interest rate decisions from the BoE, the FED and the ECB.

The information contained here is for general information only. It should not be taken as constituting financial advice. Stormrake is not a financial adviser. You should consider seeking independent financial advice prior to making any personal investments.

Packed Economic Calendar

We start the week with some data out of the UK and AUS, these won't be large market movers but should provide some life for local markets to start moving. The major headlines kick off mid-week with the release inflation data out of the US and the FOMC meeting set to occur within 6 hours of each other. For us traders on the east coast of Australia means no sleep but we eagerly anticipate the volatility, so its welcomed.

The setup is quite simple from a headline perspective, if we get US inflation print less than 7.1% and receive a 50bps or less rate hike out of the FOMC, risk assets and Bitcoin will have. a substantial move the upside. A possible reclaim of the $20,000 USD is on the cards for Bitcoin in this scenario. The risks are also clear, if we get a greater than 7.7% inflation print and a greater than 50bps rate hike, risk assets and Bitcoin will get sold off heavily. This scenario can trigger a breakdown of the lows set for 2022 and print fresh new lows for the year.

Altcoin Watch: GMX

Interactive chart: click on image for higher resolution

Crypto prices and sentiment both in a deep winter yet GMX continues to make new all time highs against both USD and ETH denominations. Whilst it remains in this expanding channel and holding above the $53.85 USD handle, it can print a new all time high at the $64 level. For those looking for value, a breakdown below $53.85 can have it retest $49.14.

As GMX plays an integral role in the continued growth of Arbitrum, it's a decent way to attempt in capturing value from a speculated Arbitrum token airdrop. As it stands now Arbitrum has an approximate total value locked of $1.1 Billion USD, of which GMX compromises 40% of that value captured.

BTC/USD Key Levels

Bitcoin continues to remain locked in an incredible tight range. Throughout the weekend it peeked above our key level of $17,189 USD but failed to close above that on a daily chart. If it manages to close above $17,189, it sets up a move to the key resistance level of $18,217. If macro economic news is healthy, it can even retest $19,673 by end of week. To the downside, if we close below $16,500 then major support is found at the local lows of $15,588.

ETH/USD Key Levels

Ethereum continues to struggle with our key level of $1,300 USD as it eyes a move higher. Should it finally close above $1,300 on the daily chart, the next major resistance level comes in at $1,386. If macro events turn positive then a strong move $1,555 cannot be ruled by end of week. To the downside, if it closes below $1,190, then a retest of the local lows coming in at $1,071 is on the cards.

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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.

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