Bitcoin seasonality means we can be in store for a nice move up in October but we need to be mindful of the hostile macro environment when we make investing decisions
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UPtober to run the liquidations
To make this liquidation run a possibility won't be easy, as from current prices it will require a 25% rally to get to $24,000. This squeeze will need to be a spot market driven move, so approx. $85 billion USD worth of net bidding needs to occur. It won't be an easy task but anything is possible in UPtober.
Wake me up when September ends
Return distributions aside, it's becoming increasingly apparent the need for Bitcoin as self sovereign money will be critical in the decade to come.
BTC/USD key levels
ETH/USD key levels
Ethereum has gone to sleep and has fallen out of speculative favour within the crypto trading community. The anemic price action is just a by product of the merge now firmly in the rear view mirror. I hear that Vitalik is working on the next iteration of the Ethereum hype machine called 'The Surge' but until then it will be highly correlated to Bitcoin. $1,333 USD remains the key level to watch, as it operates as a magnet. A break below $1,24 the next key level of support comes in at $1,003. To the upside, we need a break of $1,422 for a shot at $1,620.
Dollar index taps into unlimited power
The US dollar index is currently going parabolic and is completely annihilating the Yen, Euro and Pound. Despite this raging USD strength, it's great to see Bitcoin holding up relatively well. It's important to note that this structural bid for US dollars, amidst a credit crunch is not going away anytime soon. Instead of trying to call the top on the DXY, your efforts are better spent identifying assets that are worth bidding at prices that you deem too attractive to pass up.
A final note on USD strength, it will likely be a telegraphed devaluation through the US printing dollars to support its allies. This can be done in a foreign bond buying program or opening generous swap lines. Should this occur, you will hear it in the Morning note alongside the trades that can be explored.
No Advice Warning
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