THORCHAIN: The One Chain To Unite Them All

07.09.22 07:07 AM By Stormrake

a visual aide showing the history of hard forks of the Ethereum blockchain

THORChain Ecosystem Review

Understanding how crypto ecosystems work can be a hellish experience. Now add in the complexity of a blockchain that allows you to trade between different chains, without any bridges or wrapped assets and it can make even the most hardened crypto investor's head spin. The Stormrake research team has put in over 50 hours to develop this research report to find out whether it's a crypto asset worth buying. Have a read of the report below and find out if this is a bear market gem.

Understanding how THORChain works

THORChain is an independent blockchain built using the Cosmos SDK that will serve as a cross-chain decentralized exchange (DEX). It uses an automated market maker (AMM) model where THORChain's native token (RUNE) will be the base swap pair. This model allows traders to move between different asset pools using RUNE as a somewhat hidden intermediary (more on the risks later). It also rewards liquidity providers (LPs), those that lock up their assets on either side of a liquidity pool, with a portion of trading fees (more on these benefits later).

The protocol uses an AMM model to facilitate crypto asset swaps across different blockchain networks in a non-custodial and non KYC manner. Its protocol features a cross-chain bridge system (known as the Bifröst Protocol) to connect different chains. The name of the protocol pays homage to the Bifrost in Norse mythology, a bridge that connects the nine worlds that exists in the Norse religion.
THORChain also uses an adapted version of Bancor's "smart tokens," which it calls Continuous Liquidity Pools (CLPs), to facilitate the exchange of assets. The key difference is that CLPs reward users for contributing to the liquidity in each pool. THORChain features a native token, RUNE, that owners can use to participate in the network or add to a liquidity pool.

It's important to note that the RUNE native token works as a sort of bond and it's the token that helps fuel the networks swaps. THORChain is simply the network that facilities all of these cross chain swaps. This distinction is important, so that users don't conflate the two. Think of how the Ethereum network is independent of the ETH coin itself. Of course, you can't have one without the other but the delineation between network and token helps us in evaluating whether a chain has value.

The RUNE token review

RUNE is integral to the design of THORChain. If RUNE has been designed correctly, THORChain may succeed. If RUNE has been designed poorly, THORChain will fail.

Fast facts:
  • Max Total Supply: 500,000,000 RUNE
  • Chain: THORChain (Cosmos SDK/Tendermint consensus)

RUNE has several roles in THORChain:
  • It is the asset in which fees are charged to traders and paid to validators and Liquidity Providers (LPs).
  • It is used for THORChain governance (1 RUNE = 1 Vote, but governance is limited to signalling priority for assets and chains).
  • It is the asset that validating THORnodes must post as bond for the privilege (and responsibility) of validating transactions.
  • It is the asset to which LPs must pair every deposit. It is recommended that an LP depositing $100k in BTC also deposit $100k in RUNE at the same time. If they don’t, half of their assets will be swapped for RUNE under the hood.

Why Do THOR nodes Post RUNE as Bond?

THORChain’s security model relies on proof-of-bond. By posting bond, it keeps validating THORChain Nodes honest. More accurately, it disincentivises them harshly for misbehaviour.

THOR nodes are strongly incentivised to post an amount of RUNE as a bond that approaches 2x the value of all native assets in the liquidity pools.

If the liquidity pools have $25m of combined BTC, ETH, and USDT, for example, the THOR nodes are incentivised to collectively post at least $50m of RUNE in their bond. If they don’t, the THORChain system becomes “under-bonded,” and the system starts channeling trading fees away from LPs and toward THOR nodes.

This has the obvious effect of making it less profitable to provide liquidity and more profitable to run a node. Eventually, liquidity recedes and the bidding war among nodes brings more RUNE into the total bond. As more RUNE is bonded by the nodes competing for the increased share of trade fee revenue, the system self-corrects. Nature has healed, and equilibrium is again achieved among anonymous, profit-seeking parties.

The opposite can also happen: if too much RUNE is bonded by nodes, the system starts channeling trading fees back to the LPs, away from nodes. Eventually, this draws in more liquidity (because it’s more profitable to provide it) and the THOR nodes start bidding less for inclusion in the validator set (because that capital now earns less).

This mechanism — in which the trading fee revenue adjusts automatically between LPs and Thor node operators — is called the “Incentive Pendulum.” It is a unique aspect of THORChain’s design, not shared by any other DEX to my knowledge.

In practice, the economic incentives are such that Thor nodes are drawn to maintaining a RUNE bond of 2x the value of all deposited assets in the liquidity pools. And thus, even in the worst case scenario where every node colludes, they lose $2 for every $1 they could steal.
Image thanks to Greymatter Research

The benefits of THORChain

THORChain truly has significant potential as a highly leveraged bet on a multi-chain crypto future. If one has the view that crypto and multiple chains will exist to serve unique and critical functions in everyday life, then RUNE is an obvious play.
Many people have been onboarded to crypto through centralised exchanges, NFT trading and the allure of supercharged returns. Whilst all that's valid and there is no such thing as a bad reason to be in crypto, the unique feature of this asset class is that it operates as a bearer asset and is self sovereign money.
This means you truly own the asset that sits in your self-custody wallet and that it's not an abstraction of ownership such as a shares certificate.
To truly take advantage of this self sovereign future and to be your own bank, THORChain will be there to operate as a zero KYC, non-custodial super highway connecting you to all the ways you want to position yourself.
Another added benefit is you unlock yield on Bitcoin by becoming a liquidity provider, although you do face risks when doing so (more on that in the next section).

TL;DR of THORChain benefits:
  • Non-custodial 
  • Native swaps
  • Unlock Bitcoin yield 
  • Privacy preserving 
  • No bridges or wrapped assets

The risks of THORChain

All the potential and current use cases are incredibly exciting and they certainly work today. However, this wouldn't be an honest review if we don't detail the risks of the THORChain ecosystem and its associated native RUNE token.
The first and most obvious issue is a complete collapse in the crypto ecosystem. The premise of this chain is that we have multiple chains with vibrant ecosystems with users wanting to seamlessly swap between these chains. If crypto was to collapse or become entirely Bitcoin dominated, the Thorchain ecosystem will collapse as well and there will be no LPs, nodes or users for fees to be generated.
A secondary issue is a RUNE bank run, where the impermanent loss protection gets exploited and all bonded assets get liquidated in order to protect pool redemptions. Although this would require a highly coordinated and capital intensive attack. If THORChain grows to a large enough size, it might make the reward worth the risks of launching such an attack.
The final risk to be aware of is general price risk, where if the price of RUNE goes down enough (prices are set at the margins) yet the wider market conditions have improved, the yield from trading fees might not incentivise enough LPs to bear the price risk of RUNE.
Please note this list is not exhaustive but simply covers the main risks to be aware of, should you wish to participate in the network or purchase RUNE tokens.

RUNE technical analysis 

At the time of writing RUNE is correctly trading around $1.75 USD. The current price is sitting on a key support level of $1.72 and a daily close below this level will have us testing the local lows of $1.40. A move to the upside will require some momentum from the macro landscape but should liquidity conditions improve, a move to $2.45 can be expected whilst a strong rally can take us into $3.04 before resistance is met.
Investors would do well by being patient and adding this asset into their portfolio at a break of recent lows to secure better prices and to build their position sub $2 USD. This will set them up for a potential 20x return in the next bull run, simply if the price of RUNE was to hit its previous all time high.

Fast 5 facts:

  • Market cap: $527 million USD
  • Fully diluted valuation: $876 million USD
  • Circulating supply: 300 billion
  • Max supply: 500 billion
  • 50% of supply is assigned for liquidity emissions


THORChain video explainer 

Audio/visiual leaerners can benefit from the handy explainer above 

Final thoughts on THORChain

THORChain has a vibrant ecosystem and is presenting an incredible market solution for decentralised swapping of crypto assets. The ecosystem and the RUNE token is a highly leveraged play on a multi chain future within crypto itself and is a big bet on many chains having value and competing for users. It also unlocks the potential of earning yield in your native token of choice, albeit facing price risk from RUNE itself. 
The dev team launched the token in the 2019 bear market, has seen a full bull run and is now entrenched in a bear market but the chain continues to improve and new chains are looking to be added for trading at the time of writing. This shows resilience and means that the community and dev team are battle tested and ready to see out the bear market and head to the halls of Valhalla when the glory of a bull run begins again.

The wider macro conditions mean that RUNE price can head lower over the coming months but for the intrepid crypto investor, it could be a worthy allocation as part of their Altcoin portfolio, in preparation for the next bull run. 

No Advice Warning 

The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
 

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