If you could pinpoint two events with the potential to significantly impact every market, interest rate decisions and a U.S. election would top the list. Interestingly, both of these events are set to occur later this week. The U.S. election is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by the U.S. interest rate decision early Friday morning.
As both events carry a high degree of speculation, major market volatility is expected, particularly in Bitcoin and the broader crypto space. This election is the most closely contested in years, with betting odds for Trump declining over the past week (dropping from 67% to 55% on Polymarket and shifting from $1.53 to $1.72 on Sportsbet). This uncertainty is already reflected in Bitcoin's price: when Trump was heavily favored, Bitcoin was rallying and testing all-time highs. However, as the odds tightened, Bitcoin retraced over 8% from its recent high. With less than 72 hours until this ‘coin-flip’ election, volatility will likely ramp up further, persisting not only through the election but until Friday’s rate decision as well. Despite potential short-term volatility and downside risk, our long-term stance on Bitcoin remains bullish, as does its long-term technical structure. If the market dips in the short term, it should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Friday’s interest rate decision is likely to result in a second rate cut since 2021, with a 98% probability of a 25 bps cut. Since this announcement follows the election, it’s challenging to predict market conditions just before the rate decision. Further analysis will be included in Thursday’s Morning Note, by which time we should know the election outcome and have insight into market reactions.
If you feel underexposed or worry about missing out, now is a good time to bolster your Bitcoin position before the new all time highs are made. You’re still early, and if you have long-term confidence in the crypto space, this is an ideal time to enter. Contact your Stormrake Crypto Broker to seize these golden opportunities.
Stormrake Spotlight: TAO ($433.58)
Stormrake Spotlight: TAO ($433.58)
Bittensor (TAO) has been one of the strongest performers over the last 12 months, seeing nearly a 400% increase. However, it has recently experienced a pullback, currently presenting an attractive entry opportunity. TAO has consistently led during bullish market conditions, and as always, identifying leaders during these periods and allocating during pullbacks is a sound strategy. TAO is presently down 50% from its all-time high in March, representing a potential 100% gain if it returns to that level. Assuming altcoins continue to lead, TAO could be one of the frontrunners hitting new highs.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin has continued its pullback, maintaining a short-term bearish trend and reaching a low of $67.5k, where it encountered support at a monthly CPR level. BTC has since reclaimed the 21 EMA but faces resistance at the 55 EMA. To signal a short-term bullish trend, BTC would need to break and sustain above the 55 EMA, ideally trading above $70k. Support remains solid around $68k, but the election will heavily influence short-term direction. Long-term bullish momentum remains as long as BTC stays above $65,250.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 3 Nov: $ N/A million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Ethereum remains in a bearish trend below all key moving averages and appears to be approaching lower levels. Depending on Bitcoin's reaction to this week’s events, ETH is expected to underperform in either direction. A bullish BTC could push ETH to reclaim $2,556, whereas a bearish BTC may see ETH dropping to $2,300.
ETH Total ETF Flows for 3 Nov: $ N/A million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis
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The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
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