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Bitcoin isn’t where many expected it to be. 2024 set the perfect foundation for a massive 2025—ETFs were launched, all-time highs were reached, the fourth halving event occurred, a pro-crypto president won the US election, and inflation appeared to be under control. These factors pushed Bitcoin beyond $100K, and talk of a $200K Bitcoin was everywhere. It wasn’t an outlandish prediction, especially with major catalysts expected in 2025 to propel Bitcoin even higher.
One of these catalysts was the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which was proposed to purchase 200K BTC annually for the next five years. Another was the expectation of five interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2025.
Well, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was officially created a few days ago, but let’s just say it didn’t have the bullish effect many had anticipated. Instead of sparking a rally, it triggered a sell-off as the details left many investors disappointed.
So, what about the five expected rate cuts? Unfortunately, that’s off the table too. New Trump tariffs have caused inflation expectations to rise, derailing hopes that inflation was fully under control. While many expected rate cuts to begin in March, the first cut is now projected for June. Jerome Powell recently stated that the economic landscape is "extremely uncertain" due to tariff wars, but the Fed has the flexibility to remain patient and avoid rushing into policy changes.
So Is the Bull Run Over?
We’re now in March, and Bitcoin is down nearly 30% from its all-time high. The bears are in control, altcoins are bleeding, and two of the year’s biggest catalysts have either disappointed or remain dictated by an uncertain macro environment.
But is the bull run over?
Not so fast.
One key metric for Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory is M2—the global money supply. M2 continues to increase, and money printers are coming back on in the United States and Europe. Yes, more money in the economy increases inflation, but it also means more liquidity flows into investments—Bitcoin included.
Cast your mind back to 2020/2021. The last time M2 significantly increased, it was the driving force behind the bull market that sent Bitcoin to $69K. Bitcoin historically lags behind M2 by approximately 10 weeks, and if you look at the chart below, you’ll notice Bitcoin’s price (blue) mirroring the green line of M2, which recently formed a trough. Bitcoin is now approaching its own trough, and if history repeats itself, a rally should follow.
The Verdict: A Buying Opportunity, Not the End
No, it’s not over. Use this opportunity to pick up Bitcoin and dollar-cost average into altcoins.
This Trump-driven volatility isn’t going anywhere, and sharp corrections should be expected throughout the year. As I’ve said countless times, these dips are golden buying opportunities. Time and time again, I’ve been proven right—and those who followed my advice have reaped massive gains.
Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)
Stormrake Spotlight: Sonic (S) ($0.43)
As mentioned yesterday, when Bitcoin struggles, Sonic struggles even more. Yesterday, Bitcoin fell 6.5%, while Sonic dropped 14%. In these bearish market conditions, Sonic will continue to underperform, but for those looking to dollar-cost average, these drops present golden buying opportunities.
Last month, Sonic dropped to $0.31 before rallying to $0.99 within weeks, even while the broader market was consolidating. On-chain data continues to show strong performance, while the price action lags behind on-chain fundamentals—a setup that historically leads to outsized rallies when market sentiment shifts.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin has fallen below the key level of $81.6K after dropping over 6% yesterday, remaining in an extremely bearish structure. There’s very little support between current prices and the next key level at $73.8K.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $81.6K, a move towards $73.8K is likely. Should this occur, expect a sharp drop, but also a quick recovery as buyers step in.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Ethereum fell below $2,000 for the third time this month, but has reclaimed the key level of $2,019 once again. Momentum and structure remain bearish, and if Bitcoin continues lower—potentially to $73K—then Ethereum could drop to the monthly CPR of $1,765.
ETH Total ETF Flows for 9 Mar: $ (data not available at the time of writing)
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
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