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Bitcoin has finally broken out of its 10-day consolidation range following Jerome Powell’s press conference this morning. As expected, there was no rate cut, and market reaction hinged entirely on Powell—who did deliver. Bitcoin is up 5% on the day, with altcoins rising even more.
Powell’s tone surprised most investors when he used the term "transitory" to describe inflation and suggested that the Trump tariffs are unlikely to have a long-term impact. The Fed is in a good position to "wait for greater clarity" on the Trump agenda before adjusting policy. The expectation among FOMC members is that interest rates will end the year between 3.9% - 4.4%, up from 3.6% - 4.1% in December. This implies only one rate cut, but both Powell and the market have pencilled in two by year-end.
While tariffs have been a key source of uncertainty and bearish sentiment across markets, the Fed does not expect them to last—viewing them as temporary. This is an extremely bullish signal for markets in the long term. When paired with M2 global money supply expanding once again, it sets the stage for sustained growth in risk-on assets.
Bitcoin is currently trading above $87K, eyeing a reclaim of $90K—a highly bullish outcome after weeks of negative sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index now sits at 49, a massive recovery from the multi-year low of 10 just a month ago. A key takeaway: sentiment has rebounded dramatically, yet Bitcoin remains at a similar price level to when extreme fear dominated.
At the recent lows, many were calling for Bitcoin to break further into the $70K region, with some even predicting a return to the $60Ks. But as it so often does, Bitcoin has defied expectations. Have we seen the bottom? Not yet—we're not out of the woods, but we're making strong progress.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.
Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.53)
Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.53)
XRP has had a massive 24 hours. First, the SEC lawsuit against XRP was dropped. Then, Bitnomial launched its XRP futures contract, marking the first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures product in the U.S. And finally, Powell’s dovish stance provided a tailwind for the entire market.
As highlighted in yesterday’s note, XRP needed to break above $2.47 to regain a bullish structure—and it has done exactly that. It has now flipped market structure bullish, reclaimed all major moving averages, and returned to the upper half of its broader consolidation range. With this momentum, a $3 retest is likely in the coming weeks.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin has broken through the key resistance level of $85.2K, confirming bullish momentum. If BTC sustains this rally, we should see a $90K retest soon. If not, $85.2K must hold as support to maintain the bullish structure.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 19 Mar: $ + 22.0 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
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