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For the last two months, Bitcoin has been trading within a broad range of $90K–$110K. During this time, we’ve seen multiple all-time highs alongside some of the largest mass liquidation events in crypto history. Despite several major catalysts shaking the market, none have been strong enough to break either side of the range. With pullbacks and rallies nearing 20%, there has been no decisive breakout or breakdown.
From bullish catalysts such as pro-crypto executive orders, Gary Gensler stepping down as SEC Chair, the formation of a new pro-crypto task force within the SEC, and increasing discussions of digital asset reserves, to bearish catalysts like the US DOJ preparing to sell $6 billion worth of seized Bitcoin, DeepSeek AI threats, and ongoing tariff and trade wars, the market has remained in a tug-of-war.
This period of price action is quite reminiscent of Bitcoin’s movements last year. Cast your mind back to March 2024—we had just seen a new all-time high, the first time Bitcoin had set a new all time high before a halving event. Between March and November, Bitcoin traded within an even wider range of $50K–$74K for eight months. Throughout this time, various bullish and bearish catalysts pushed the price in both directions.
On the bearish side, Bitcoin saw major sell-offs from the German Government and US DOJ unloading seized BTC, as well as the yen carry trade unwind, which triggered a 30% correction. Meanwhile, bullish catalysts included the first "Trump Pump" following the initial assassination attempt, which sent Bitcoin nearly 30% higher back to the range highs. Bitcoin swung 30% within the range, dominance remained in the mid-50% region, and altcoins experienced even more volatile movements. Those who accumulated Bitcoin during this consolidation phase saw incredible returns, with buyers at the bottom of the range up over 100%, and those buying at the top still up nearly 50% when Bitcoin hit all-time highs just last month.
That consolidation period ended with a major breakout to the upside, driven by Trump’s election victory, which saw Bitcoin rally over 60% in the following six weeks.
Now, we are once again waiting for a major catalyst to give Bitcoin the push it needs to break out of the range and continue higher. The one on everyone’s mind is the possibility of the US Government buying Bitcoin with its reserves. Trump’s election victory saw a 60% rally—so imagine what this potential catalyst could do. Bitcoin $200K?
Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.33)
Stormrake Spotlight: Ondo Finance (ONDO) ($1.33)
Whilst Bitcoin remains in a prolonged consolidation phase, it should be at the top of your priority list and make up most of your new allocation. However, for those looking to take on more risk in altcoins, Ondo Finance (ONDO) stands out as one of the strongest selections.
Not only is it backed by some of the largest institutions in the space, but it has remained technically strong throughout the past two months of uncertainty in the broader market. Ondo has begun forming a solid base and an accumulation zone around its current price.
Accumulating within this zone could provide attractive returns if the market turns bullish again and the bull run resumes. If altseason does arrive, Ondo is positioned to be at the forefront.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Following yesterday’s bounce off the key support level of $95.7K, Bitcoin has regained bullish momentum and is now attempting to clear the final 200 EMA hurdle once again, after failing to do so overnight.
If Bitcoin successfully flips this level, the probability of reclaiming $100K increases. A failure, however, could see BTC revisit support levels once more.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 10 Feb: $ - 66.1 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Ethereum is following a similar trajectory to Bitcoin, having bounced off key support at $2,556 and regained bullish momentum. However, ETH faces two major hurdles before it can attempt to approach the previous lower high of $2,800 or the key level of $2,865.
Both 200-day moving averages (EMA & SMA) present resistance. While Bitcoin has already cleared the SMA and is now challenging the EMA, Ethereum has yet to reach this test.
A rejection at either moving average could send ETH back to support, whereas a successful break would likely see ETH move toward $2,800.
ETH Total ETF Flows for 10 Feb: $ - 22.5 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
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