To receive the Morning Note in your inbox, subscribe here: https://stormrake.substack.com/
With the upcoming FOMC event tomorrow and the unpredictable Jerome Powell press conference that follows, investors are taking a cautious approach. The last 24 hours have reflected this risk-off sentiment, with the S&P 500 down 1.07%, the Nasdaq down 1.7%, the DXY (US Dollar Index) down 0.16%, and Bitcoin down 1.52%. It’s clear where the money is flowing: into the widely regarded ‘safe haven’ asset, gold. Gold continues to make new all-time highs, climbing another 1.1% yesterday, marking seven consecutive days of bullish closes.
We’ve been following the massive short position that has had the entire crypto market on edge. After growing to over half a billion dollars, the $520m position was closed yesterday evening, resulting in the trader pocketing a $1.1 million profit after funding fees. This closure underscores the uncertainty and risk-off environment we're currently in, leading up to Powell’s press conference tomorrow.
The market has priced in a 100% chance that there will be no rate change tomorrow, so we shouldn’t expect volatility from the rate decision itself. However, 30 minutes later (at 5:30am AEST), when Jerome Powell takes the stage to answer questions and provide clarity on the Federal Reserve’s stance, we can expect the volatility to kick in, and the market direction could be determined. We expect Powell to signal that the Fed will remain patient, avoiding any rush to make rate decisions due to the ongoing uncertainty and volatility stemming from Trump’s tariff policies. The tone of his speech will be key—if Powell adopts a hawkish tone, risk-on assets could continue to pullback, whereas a dovish tone could lead to a rally in risk-on assets. Powell’s remarks might finally break Bitcoin out of the week-long consolidation range it’s been stuck in.
Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.29)
Stormrake Spotlight: Ripple (XRP) ($2.29)
XRP remains in a similar position to yesterday, still trading between the CPR levels and just below the 21 EMA. It saw a slight pullback of 2.26% yesterday, following the broader market. For XRP to break its bearish structure, it needs to form a higher low above $1.89 and then create a new higher high above $2.47. Until that happens, the market remains bearish. However, at current levels, XRP presents an excellent dollar-cost averaging or buying opportunity for those with a long-term bullish outlook.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
The recent move back to the bottom of the range has shifted the structure from neutral to bearish. However, bulls have continued to provide buying support at $81.6k, the lower end of the range. BTC has since bounced and reclaimed three of its four moving averages. If this rally can be sustained, the momentum may shift back to the bulls.
BTC Total ETF Flows for 18 Mar: $ - 9.0 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
*All prices are denominated in USD unless stated otherwise*
Written by Alexandar Artis
Create a brokerage account today
No Advice Warning
The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
Disclaimer
All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.Copyright © 2024 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
