Bitcoin is on the verge of closing its third consecutive bearish day since breaking above $64.5k, giving the impression that BTC is stuck in a persistent range. Volatility is expected to continue tonight with the release of US CPI data at 11:30pm AEST. The question remains: will this event drive BTC back up to the mid-$60k range, or will it trigger another drop below $60k?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the key metrics used to measure inflation. Released monthly, these figures help central banks assess whether their strategies to combat inflation are effective.
Historically, CPI announcements have triggered volatility across all asset classes, not just Bitcoin. The data affects everything from Bitcoin to Gold, the USD, the S&P500, and other foreign currencies.
The chart above highlights the volatile impact CPI days have had on Bitcoin year-to-date, with an average price movement of 6.22% from high to low. In comparison, the last few of days, while still volatile, exhibited more modest ranges of 3.65%, 2.15% and 2.90%, respectively, which is much lower than the typical fluctuation seen on CPI days.
What to expect from CPI data:
What to expect from CPI data:
The previous monthly CPI reading was 0.3%, and the forecast anticipates a slight decrease to 0.2%. There are three possible outcomes: the CPI could meet, exceed, or fall below expectations.
- CPI Higher than Forecast: A higher-than-expected CPI indicates rising inflation and is bullish for "risk-off" assets like the USD. In response, "risk-on" assets such as Bitcoin may see a decline.
- CPI In Line with Forecast: If the CPI meets expectations, Bitcoin and other assets are likely to continue their current trends without much influence from the data.
- CPI Lower than Forecast: A lower-than-expected CPI suggests that inflation is cooling, which is bullish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. This could shift the short-term trend back to bullish and push Bitcoin's price higher.
Stormrake Spotlight: SUI ($1.86)
Stormrake Spotlight: SUI ($1.86)
We’ve briefly mentioned SUI in previous Stormrake Spotlights, but it has yet to be our coin of focus. However, in the past month, SUI has surged by over 100%. For context, Bitcoin (BTC) is up 10% for the month, and Ethereum (ETH) has only gained 3%. Notably, SUI is one of the few coins trading within 20% of its all-time highs. Investors should take note of SUI's recent strength, as it is poised to be one of the leading coins when Bitcoin reverses and the bull run resumes.
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
BTC/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Bitcoin struggled to hold above the top CPR level and its moving averages, eventually failing to bounce off this support and falling to the key $60.1k level, wiping out over $100 million in leveraged longs. Previously, BTC has bounced off this $60.1k level, will it do so again, or will we see a break below, leading to a drop to the next support at $57.7k?
BTC Total ETF Flows for 9 Oct: $ 0 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/btc/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
ETH/USD Key Levels and Price Action:
Like Bitcoin, Ethereum has failed to stay above its moving averages and now appears to be approaching the CPR support line at $2,260. While a bounce at this level is likely, Ethereum is expected to remain in its downtrend for the time being.
ETH Total ETF Flows for 9 Oct: $ 0 million
(ETF flow data is sourced from https://farside.co.uk/eth/ and reflects figures at the time of writing.)
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Written by Alexandar Artis
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