Sui, the new Ethereum or Solana?

18.10.24 02:54 AM By Stormrake

Major Altcoins; Past, the Present and the Future?

The cryptocurrency market has seen cycles dominated by different blockchains. Ethereum took the spotlight in 2017, Solana in 2021, and now, with Sui’s rapid rise, will it follow the same explosive trajectory. Here, we explore the performance of these blockchains during their peaks, compare their tokenomics and funding, and project what the future might hold for Sui.

Founders and Funding: Ethereum, Solana, and Sui's Paths

Ethereum, founded by Vitalik Buterin in 2015, fundamentally changed the blockchain landscape by introducing smart contracts—programmable agreements that operate autonomously on the blockchain. This innovation allowed Ethereum to become the foundation for decentralised applications (dApps) and Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs), fueling its explosive growth. Ethereum raised approximately $18 million through a crowdsale, and this funding, combined with its first-mover advantage, helped cement Ethereum’s place as the dominant smart contract platform.

Solana, founded in 2017 by Anatoly Yakovenko, was initially focused on decentralised stock exchanges but quickly pivoted to becoming a general-purpose blockchain. Solana raised around $25 million across several funding rounds and later secured $314 million from institutional investors, including FTX, in 2021.

Sui has a different origin. Developed by ex-Meta engineers, Sui emerged from Facebook’s ill-fated Libra/Diem project. After Libra was abandoned, the core team split into two, forming Aptos and Sui, with Sui focusing on innovations in blockchain technology through the Move programming language. Sui raised nearly $400 million between 2021 and 2023, positioning itself as a rising contender in the space.

Technology: Ethereum’s Flexibility, Solana’s Speed, Sui’s Innovation

Ethereum’s biggest strength lies in its smart contract platform, which allows developers to build decentralized applications across various use cases, from decentralized finance (DeFi) to NFTs. Since transitioning from Proof of Work (PoW) to a Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism in 2022, Ethereum has made strides toward improving its efficiency. However, it has faced challenges with scalability and high gas fees, limiting its ability to handle large volumes of transactions. The good news is that Ethereum’s ability to undergo upgrades, such as layer 2 solutions and future network optimizations, aims to significantly reduce on-chain fees and improve scalability, keeping it competitive.

Solana addressed these scalability issues with its Proof of History (PoH) innovation. PoH timestamps transactions, allowing them to be processed in parallel with its Proof of Stake system, giving Solana a theoretical capacity of 200,000 transactions per second (TPS). Solana’s fast block times (400 milliseconds) make it one of the fastest blockchains, but it has suffered from reliability issues, experiencing multiple network outages.

Sui introduces a novel approach by using the Move programming language and an object-based model, which allows for highly scalable and flexible transaction handling. Unlike Ethereum’s account-based system, Sui tracks objects, enabling faster and more efficient smart contract execution. In tests, Sui achieved 297,000 TPS with finality times of 390 milliseconds, making it technically faster than both Ethereum and Solana. However, with only 8 active validators, Sui’s current network is more centralised than its competitors.

Tokenomics and Funding:

Ethereum has no maximum supply of tokens, and it operates under a deflationary mechanism where tokens are burned during transactions. This deflationary tokenomics helps maintain ETH’s value despite its high circulating supply. While Ethereum’s initial coin offering (ICO) raised $18 million, it continues to attract massive institutional investment and remains the dominant platform for developers, despite its scalability issues.

Solana launched with an initial supply of 500 million SOL tokens, which were distributed aggressively to investors, team members, and the Solana Foundation. Despite concerns over centralization due to large early allocations, Solana’s supply has been steadily released into circulation, and it currently follows an inflationary model that will eventually taper down to 1.5% inflation.

Sui, with a maximum supply of 10 billion Sui tokens, has followed a more structured release, with significant token allocations set aside for community reserves and staking rewards. Its aggressive vesting schedule, combined with a unique storage fee system (allowing users to partially redeem storage fees by deleting non-essential data), offers a different take on tokenomics compared to Ethereum and Solana.

Performance Comparison: Ethereum’s 2017, Solana’s 2021, and Sui’s 2025?

Each blockchain has had a moment of incredible growth, driven by unique market dynamics. Here's a look at how their price movements compare:

Ethereum’s 2017 Monster Performance:

Ethereum saw explosive growth during the ICO craze, where almost every new project launched on ETH. On January 1, 2017, Ethereum was priced at $8.05, and by December 19, 2017, it hit a peak of $870. It closed the year at $741.71, showcasing a massive return. Ethereum remains strong, currently trading around $2,433.

Solana’s 2021 Masterclass:

Solana experienced a similar surge in 2021 during the memecoin craze, where retail investors flocked to the network to bet on speculative tokens. Starting at $1.50 on January 1, 2021, Solana reached an all-time high of $259.9 on November 6, 2021, before closing the year at $169.99. Solana now trades at $143, having maintained significant value despite the market's volatility.

Sui's 2025??

Sui’s current trajectory suggests it may follow a similar path to Ethereum in 2017 and Solana in 2021. Sui started 2024 at $0.7753 and reached a high of $2.34 in October 2024. If market conditions align, Sui could see significant gains by 2025, driven by its innovative technology and growing ecosystem.

Price Projections: Sui’s Potential Compared to Ethereum and Solana

To get a clearer understanding of Sui's potential, we can project its price if it reaches various percentages of Ethereum’s and Solana’s peak market caps:

Ethereum reached a peak market cap of $560 billion during its 2021 bull run, while Solana peaked at $90 billion.
Currently, Sui’s market cap sits at $5.5 billion, and its price is $2.

Using these figures, we can project Sui’s price if it were to reach 25%, 50%, and 100% of Ethereum's and Solana's peak market caps:

Ethereum's Peak Market Cap ($560 billion):

At 25% of ETH's peak: Sui would need to increase by 2445.5% to reach $50.91.
At 50% of ETH's peak: Sui would need to increase by 4991.0% to reach $101.82.
At 100% of ETH's peak: Sui would need to increase by 10082.0% to reach $203.64.

Solana's Peak Market Cap ($90 billion):

At 25% of SOL's peak: Sui would need to increase by 309.0% to reach $8.18.
At 50% of SOL's peak: Sui would need to increase by 718.0% to reach $16.36.
At 100% of SOL's peak: Sui would need to increase by 1536.5% to reach $32.73.

These projections suggest that Sui has significant upside potential, especially if it captures even a fraction of the market share that Ethereum and Solana reached during their peaks. As Sui's technology and ecosystem mature, it could easily rise to challenge these heights, particularly with its innovative use of the Move programming language.

Total Transactions: Solana Leads, Sui Rises, Ethereum Falls Behind

Transaction volume is a key metric to assess a blockchain’s success. Over the past 30 days:

Solana processed 1.8 billion transactions, maintaining its lead as the go-to network for memecoins and high-speed applications. (source: https://messari.io/project/solana/network-metrics )
Sui follows with 1 billion transactions, steadily rising in popularity due to its fast and affordable network. (source: https://suiscan.xyz/mainnet/analytics/transactions )
Ethereum, limited by high gas fees, handled just 33.1 million transactions, making it too costly for many developers and projects. (source: https://messari.io/project/ethereum/network-metrics )

Solana remains the top destination for memecoins, while Sui is quickly gaining traction, offering faster and cheaper alternatives. In contrast, Ethereum's transaction volume lags as it struggles with scalability and cost, pushing developers toward more efficient networks like Solana and Sui.

While Ethereum, Solana, and Sui each bring something unique to the table, the future may not necessarily belong to just one blockchain. Ethereum laid the groundwork, becoming the dominant platform during the ICO craze of 2017. Solana, with its focus on speed and scalability, took over in 2021, benefiting from the memecoin boom and retail interest.

Now, Sui is emerging as a possible successor, with its innovative object-based blockchain technology and scalability through the Move programming language. If Ethereum was the pioneer and Solana the fast follower, Sui might be the next in line to capture the market’s attention in 2025, especially as developers flock to its ecosystem.

In summary, Ethereum was the first altcoin to succeed, and Solana successfully replicated Ethereum’s 2017 success during its 2021 bull run. Now, the question is whether Sui can replicate either of these impressive trajectories. Investors and developers should closely

Written by Alexandar Artis

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