The Rake Review: February

28.02.25 08:30 AM By Stormrake

Trade Wars Dominate the Month

February was the month that finally broke the multi month long consolidation period. We had seen Bitcoin establish a broad range between $90k-$110k since December. January was able to weather the storm of some wild catalysts that would usually break it out of the range, but February was not able to sustain its events…

February: The Month That Finally Broke the Trend

Opening the month at $102K, fresh off all-time highs set in January, February was filled with volatility. Trade Wars kicked things off—Trump’s 25% tariffs on major trade partners sent ripples across all markets, both traditional and crypto, pulling Bitcoin below $100K. After an initial pause in tariffs provided some respite, a fresh round of reciprocal tariffs was announced. By the time the third tariff wave hit, markets appeared to build some form of immunity, as the impact on volatility gradually faded.

Following this, Bitcoin established an even tighter range of $95.7K–$100K, holding for 18 days without a daily close outside this zone. While ETF flows stagnated and Bitcoin’s buying interest hit multi-month lows, several key events unfolded.

The Death of the Memecoin Casino

Binance entered the memecoin game, launching its own ecosystem on the BNB blockchain. This triggered a massive influx of funds bridged over from Solana to BSC, in anticipation of a fresh wave of meme speculation. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) then posted a picture of his dog, ‘Broccoli,’ which immediately spawned an army of Broccoli-themed meme coins, dominating the space.

The memecoin casino seemed like it was running out of steam—until the final nail in the coffin arrived: LIBRA, one of the largest rug pulls in crypto history.

Argentinian President Javier Milei endorsed a memecoin, claiming proceeds would support small businesses in Argentina.
The token hit a $4.6 billion market cap before insiders dumped $100M, leading to a mass capitulation.
Within hours, LIBRA lost $4.4 billion, becoming one of the fastest collapses in memecoin history.

The fallout was devastating—not just for Milei, with impeachment calls growing, but for the Solana ecosystem, which had thrived on meme speculation. As investors fled, SOL crashed 40% in February, just a month after hitting an all-time high in January.

Key Events in Between

CPI data – Higher-than-expected inflation confirmed economic worries and led to heightened volatility
FTX Repayments – Long-awaited refunds disappointed many due to controversial valuation methods.
Bybit Hack ($1.4B Stolen) – The biggest crypto hack in history, linked to North Korean group Lazarus. Yet, Bitcoin held its range, thanks to Bybit’s damage control.

Bitcoin was seemingly set to close another month within its range—until Trade Wars reignited.

The Breakdown: Trade Wars Escalate

Trump doubled down, confirming paused tariffs would proceed, breaking Bitcoin’s range. BTC fell below $90K for the first time since November. The market barely had time to digest the news before Trump announced another set of tariffs, this time on Europe.

European tariffs (25%) matched those on Canada & Mexico.
Bitcoin plunged to $79K—a three-month low.

Now, the long-term structure is under threat. Will March bring a recovery, or will the tariffs break Bitcoin’s structure entirely?

Is It Over?

Going into March, sentiment is at multi-year lows. Bitcoin is down almost 30% from its all-time high set in January, altcoins are struggling to find a bid, and tariffs are going live. Is it over?

Turn your attention to the chart below. Comparing this bull run to the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin rallied to $64K, consolidated, and then retraced almost 50% in two weeks. Many believed the cycle was over, and capitulated. Just eight weeks later, Bitcoin took off from its base at the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 55EMA, setting new all-time highs and triggering one of the most memorable altseasons.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/x/KMoF1gzS/

This cycle, we just went through a 13-week consolidation before starting this 30% retracement. Bitcoin is now approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 55EMA around $73K–$75K. This level is further reinforced by last cycle’s all-time high, which acted as strong resistance throughout the eight-month consolidation period in 2023. Now flipped into support, this level becomes a high-probability bounce zone.

If Bitcoin is indeed following the 2021 blueprint, we should anticipate a bounce off $73K–$75K, setting up a move to new all-time highs later in the year. Rather than panicking and selling at a key technical level, if these levels are hit, they should be met with buying, as they represent golden opportunities.

2025’s Freaky Fridays:

This can’t be the start to the year that anyone envisioned, especially with Trump taking office. But Fridays have become a pattern, repeatedly marking major events that shift the market.

A major event has occurred on five of the last seven Fridays, starting just days before Trump was sworn into office for the second time. Below is the timeline of these Freaky Fridays:

Friday 17th Jan – $TRUMP token launch (igniting the memecoin casino).
Friday 24th Jan – DeepSeek AI crash.
Friday 31st Jan – Trump announces first tariffs (Trade War begins).
Friday 14th Feb – LIBRA rug pull, one of the largest in history.
Friday 21st Feb – Bybit hacked for $1.4 billion, the largest hack in crypto history.
Friday 28th Feb – Bitcoin falls below $80K for the first time since November.

Each event has had a bearish impact on the market. The question now is—will March bring more Freaky Fridays?

In the News:

Solana Unlock:

In the coming days, a massive Solana unlock will take place, with 11.2 million SOL (2.24% of total supply) being distributed to the Solana Foundation, presale participants, and more. Valued at $1.58 billion, this event is adding pressure to Solana, which is already struggling following the collapse of the memecoin casino.

The sell-off in anticipation of the unlock has already been playing out, but the question remains—how will recipients react? If the majority of unlocked tokens are held, Solana could see a price rebound. However, if recipients sell their tokens, further downside is inevitable.

Sonic: What Has Caused the Revival?

Sonic (formerly Fantom) has bucked the market trend, trading positive for the month, up 12%. During February, Sonic hit a low of $0.31 before climbing to $0.99 in just two weeks.

This price appreciation is largely attributed to two key factors. First, the SEC dropped its appeal against a ruling that prevented it from regulating DeFi, securing DeFi’s independence from SEC oversight. This is a massive win for Sonic, which has built itself as the home of DeFi.

Secondly, Sonic’s on-chain performance has been outstanding over the past two months. It has outperformed nearly every major blockchain across key metrics, attracting developers and users looking for an alternative to Solana. With the Solana Casino closing, these developers need a new home, and Sonic is proving to be that home.

Source: https://app.debridge.finance/

Ukraine vs Russia: Is the War Coming to an End?

President Trump has suggested that, if handled well, the Russia-Ukraine war could end in weeks. The key? A US-Ukraine minerals deal, which would tap into Ukraine’s vast lithium and rare earth resources. This agreement could provide Ukraine with economic leverage while also giving the US a strategic advantage.

Market Update:

Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in February 2025:

Bitcoin ends February down 22.6%.
Ethereum drops 36% in February, struggling to hold above $2,000 USD
BNB flips SOL as the Memecoin Casino collapses.
XRP falls to fourth place in crypto market cap rankings.
Total crypto market cap drops 25% to $2.57 trillion.

Video of the month:

'Will Trump's Tariffs Tank the Crypto Markets?'

Stormrake x BTR x Liberty Bullion Australia Tour:

After the success of the first BTR Roadshow, we’re excited to announce that we’re heading back on tour with BeatTheReset and Liberty Bullion for the ‘Back to the Future Tour’! The second instalment of your favourite trio is coming to a major Australian city near you. Running from March 15–23, secure your tickets today to ensure you don’t miss out!

Get Your Tickets HERE

Education: Understanding Market Sentiment

The past month has been a true test of market sentiment, particularly for those new to crypto and experiencing their first bull market. Sentiment plays a critical role in market cycles, influencing both price action and investor behaviour. There are several key metrics used to gauge the market’s current emotional state and what stage of the cycle we’re in. Understanding these indicators can be extremely valuable in making informed decisions.

The three main metrics we’ll cover are:

Fear and Greed Index
Bitcoin Dominance
Bitcoin Popularity

Fear and Greed Index:

As the name suggests, the Fear and Greed Index measures the collective sentiment of market participants. Warren Buffett’s famous advice—"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"—perfectly applies here.

The index has five stages: Extreme Fear, Fear, Neutral, Greed, and Extreme Greed. When prices are falling and sentiment is bearish, the market typically enters Fear or Extreme Fear territory, which often signals buying opportunities.

Currently, the index sits at 10, the lowest reading since May 2022, when the Luna collapse sent Bitcoin below $20K. Historically, extreme fear readings have correlated with market bottoms, whereas extreme greed readings tend to occur near cycle tops.

For example, on January 22nd, shortly after Bitcoin hit its most recent all-time high at $106K, the Fear & Greed Index registered a reading of 84, indicating extreme greed. While markets can remain in extreme readings for extended periods, these moments help traders identify potential reversals.

The best strategy? Accumulating during extreme fear has historically yielded the greatest returns, while periods of extreme greed may signal a time to start reducing exposure.

Bitcoin Dominance:

Bitcoin dominance refers to the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap that is made up of Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at 60%, meaning Bitcoin accounts for 60% of the total crypto market’s value.

When Bitcoin dominance is high, it indicates that investors are favouring Bitcoin over altcoins. This can happen for two main reasons:

In early bull market stages, Bitcoin typically outperforms altcoins following halving events.
During market uncertainty, investors move away from altcoins and into Bitcoin, seeking its safety in the crypto space.

On the other hand, when Bitcoin dominance is low (typically below 45%), it suggests the market is in a risk-on phase, where speculation runs high, and altcoins gain more traction. This often marks the beginning of an altseason, where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Popularity:

This may seem like an unusual metric, but it’s one of the most powerful sentiment indicators. Bitcoin popularity can be measured by:

Media coverage – Is Bitcoin in the headlines every day?
Social conversations – Are your friends, family, and even distant relatives talking about Bitcoin?
Google search trends – Are Bitcoin and crypto-related searches increasing?
X (Twitter) engagement – Are posts about Bitcoin euphoric or pessimistic?

In bear markets, Bitcoin is rarely discussed in mainstream media. Pundits call it "dead", skeptics claim the Ponzi is over, and crypto Twitter turns into a ghost town. At family dinners, you might even hear friends or relatives mocking crypto investments.

However, during bull markets, the opposite happens. Bitcoin dominates financial news, traditional finance figures suddenly turn bullish, and everyone—from taxi drivers to distant cousins—has a price prediction. Crypto Twitter becomes euphoric, with people posting wild all-time high forecasts.

At Stormrake, we use these three key metrics—Fear and Greed, Bitcoin Dominance, and Bitcoin Popularity—to gauge market sentiment and conditions. Understanding these indicators can help traders and investors navigate market cycles effectively and position themselves for the best risk-reward opportunities.

Written by Alexandar Artis

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