November was one for the Record Books
November was one for the Record Books
Bitcoin hit multiple all-time highs in November, nearing $100K, with bullish momentum setting the stage for a promising December.
Bitcoins Biggest Monthly Increase in History
November witnessed the largest dollar value increase ever for Bitcoin. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is up 37% and less than 3% away from the monumental $100,000 mark. It felt as though new all-time highs were being set every other day. November was undoubtedly a thrilling month for Bitcoin bulls, but it didn’t start that way.
Bitcoin began November at $70,000 but faced a decline leading up to the U.S. election on November 7, reaching a low of $66,800 on November 6. Market sentiment suggested that a Kamala Harris victory might lead to a further pullback, whereas a Donald Trump win was expected to boost Bitcoin in the short term. As swing states turned red, markets rallied, with Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high of $76,400 on election day. Once Trump’s victory was confirmed, the “Trump Pump” began. While bullish sentiment existed regardless of the outcome, it’s clear that the market’s reaction wouldn’t have been the same under a Harris administration.
The rally persisted for three weeks, with Bitcoin setting new highs almost daily and leaving pullback watchers behind. Bitcoin came within $400 of the $100,000 milestone. Despite many calls for corrections starting at $75,000, the largest pullback during this rally was a mere 5%.
A long-overdue pullback did occur, albeit quicker and milder than expected. Bitcoin fell approximately 9% from its high, reaching $90,800. Many anticipated a larger drop below $90,000, but proactive dip buyers were rewarded as Bitcoin rebounded, rising over 7% from the low and setting the stage for a promising December.
What’s Next for Bitcoin in December?
What’s Next for Bitcoin in December?
The recovery has re-established bullish momentum, making December a strong contender for reaching $100,000 Bitcoin. This could pave the way for further rallies to $110,000 or even $120,000 before Christmas. An anticipated interest rate cut and the traditional "Santa Claus rally" make Bitcoin’s trajectory highly promising. Remember, “time in the market beats timing the market."
Is Alt Season Upon Us?
Is Alt Season Upon Us?
In traditional bull market fashion, Bitcoin’s rally lifted the rest of the market, with altcoins delivering impressive returns. Several narratives shaped the altcoin space over the last three weeks:
Week 1: Memecoins dominated, with Dogecoin leading the charge, rallying nearly 300% to $0.44 after being featured in Stormrake Spotlight. This was followed by other memecoins like Pepe, WIF, SHIB, and PNUT, all hitting new all-time highs. Memecoin volumes reached levels seen only four times since 2021, often a cautionary signal as they have historically preceded Bitcoin peaks. However, this bull run is unlike any before.
Week 2: ISO coins like Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM), along with dino coins like Cardano (ADA) and VeChain (VET), took the spotlight.
Week 3: Gaming tokens such as Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Gala Games (GALA) led the way before Ethereum and its ecosystem took charge. Ethereum’s leadership raises questions about whether phase one of the bull market is nearing completion.
A usual crypto bull market is made up of four phases as outlined above. Bitcoin’s massive price surges over the last few months have made it undeniable that we are currently in phase one of the bull market. This has resulted in Bitcoin dominance rallying alongside its price. There are two key metrics to monitor for identifying the end of phase one: ETH/BTC and Bitcoin dominance.
Bitcoin dominance is not directly correlated with Bitcoin’s price—it can decline even as Bitcoin rallies. For instance, dominance peaked on November 21 and began to fall while Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on November 22. During the first phase, money flows into Bitcoin, increasing both price and dominance. Once dominance peaks and starts to decline, phase one is likely nearing its end. Currently, Bitcoin dominance is at 58.30%, down 5.25% from its peak of 61.53%.
The ETH/BTC performance is another crucial indicator. Phase two involves Ethereum leading the market, confirmed when Ethereum consistently outperforms Bitcoin. Presently, Ethereum and Bitcoin are alternating in outperformance, indicating an overlap between phases one and two.
Both metrics suggest we are transitioning between phases one and two. What about altseason? Altseason is the final phase of a bull market and typically lasts a few months. It occurs when Bitcoin dominance plummets below 40%. For now, we still have some distance to cover before entering altseason.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
As a result of Donald Trump’s victory, the promise of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is becoming a reality. This initiative was one of Trump’s key proposals to appeal to cryptocurrency advocates. Under Lummis’ proposed bill, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department would acquire one million Bitcoin using existing funds. This move would position the United States as the largest nation-state holder of Bitcoin, controlling 5% of the entire network—comparable to the country’s share of the global gold supply.
The Lummis Bill (Bitcoin Act) outlines six main components. First, it establishes a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, consisting of a decentralised network of Bitcoin storage facilities across the country. The most exciting aspect is the plan to purchase 200,000 BTC annually over the next five years. Additional provisions include proof of reserves for the holdings, voluntary state participation, cost offsetting, and the right for individuals to self-custody their Bitcoin.
Market Update
Market Update
Here is the fast five of what you need to know about the market in November 2024:
- Bitcoin’s largest monthly dollar value increase in history
- Bitcoin ends the month up 37.7%
- SOL and XRP both flip BNB to become the 4th and 5th largest cryptocurrency
- Cardano returns to the top 10 forcing out Tron
- Memecoins remained the hottest category, with Doge leading all memes, rallying 161%
Video of the month
Senator Cynthia Lummis unveiling the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Bill at Bitcoin 2024
In the news
Department of Government Efficiency
The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under President-elect Donald Trump, co-led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has sparked significant interest. The department's acronym, "DOGE," aligns with Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that Musk has previously endorsed. This alignment has led to speculation that Musk's involvement could positively impact Dogecoin's value. Many in the crypto community believe that Dogecoin could reach $1 during this bull cycle, partly due to Musk's influence.
Tornado Cash Surges Over 500% Following Overturned Sanctions
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit recently ruled that the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) exceeded its authority in sanctioning Tornado Cash, a cryptocurrency mixer accused of facilitating over $7 billion in illicit transactions. The court determined that Tornado Cash's immutable smart contracts do not qualify as "property" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), overturning the 2022 sanctions. This decision has been hailed as a major win for privacy advocates and the crypto industry, though it highlights the need for updated regulations to address decentralized technologies. Following the ruling, Tornado Cash's native token, TORN, surged by over 500% before stabilizing, reflecting market optimism. Despite the legal victory, challenges remain for its developers, with ongoing cases related to money laundering and sanctions violations.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Performance:
November shattered records with $6.2 billion in Bitcoin ETF inflows, including a single-day record of $1.38 billion post-election. ETF holdings are nearing one million BTC, and analysts predict they’ll surpass Satoshi’s holdings by year-end. Ethereum also saw its first instance of higher ETF inflows than Bitcoin over a four-day period (22-27 Nov).
Education
The upcoming Fantom to Sonic Migration
The upcoming Fantom to Sonic Migration
In the 2021 bull run, Fantom emerged as one of the leading cryptocurrencies, driven by the “DeFi Summer” narrative that was dominating the crypto space. During this period, Fantom became a hub for decentralized finance (DeFi), propelling its native token, $FTM, from a modest $0.02 on January 1 to an all-time high of $3.46 by late October 2021. This remarkable rally elevated FTM to the 28th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. However, the subsequent bear market took a significant toll on FTM, with its value plummeting to a low of $0.169, representing a 95% drop from its peak in less than a year.
Fast forward to today, FTM trades at $1.05, reflecting one of the strongest recoveries since the lows of the bear market. It was an early pick in our Stormrake Morning Note back in September when it was priced at $0.50, and it has since doubled in value. Over the past fortnight, FTM has been one of the standout performers, surging by over 52% and outpacing most other cryptocurrencies. This resurgence is largely attributed to the highly anticipated migration Fantom is set to undergo in December.
The upcoming migration to the new Sonic network has garnered widespread attention due to its promise of enhanced performance and scalability. Sonic is poised to become a faster and more efficient Layer 1 blockchain, capable of processing up to 200 million transactions per day. Its cross-chain interoperability, particularly with Ethereum, opens the door to a new wave of decentralised applications (dApps), increased liquidity, and broader use cases. Adding to the appeal, the Fantom Foundation is supporting this transition with substantial financial incentives, including $120 million in grants to encourage project migration.
A key figure driving Fantom’s success is Andre Cronje, the renowned developer who serves as the CTO and Chair of the Fantom Foundation (now Sonic). Widely respected within the crypto industry, Cronje’s contributions have been instrumental in establishing Fantom as a leader in DeFi. His decision to make Fantom’s code open source has inspired numerous imitators, but none have matched Fantom’s prominence. Cronje’s importance was evident during the bear market when his announcement of stepping away from the crypto space led to a significant downturn for the Fantom ecosystem. However, his return eight months later brought renewed energy and optimism, as he expressed frustration with other blockchains failing to reach their potential. This comeback revitalized the Fantom community, which remains one of the most dedicated and resilient in the crypto world. As history has shown, a strong and loyal community is often a key ingredient for the sustained success of any project.
The official Sonic Labs token migration contract will facilitate the conversion of FTM to S starting in December 2024. This process allows users to swap FTM for S at a 1:1 ratio, with the added flexibility of swapping between the two tokens freely for the first 90 days. For those who custody their FTM with us, no action will be required—the conversion will be handled automatically. Users can simply sit back and enjoy the transition.
FTM/S should undoubtedly be on the radar of any serious crypto portfolio. With its continued leadership in DeFi, consistent upgrades, and the potential of a successful migration coinciding with a bullish market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see S surpass FTM’s previous all-time high and achieve even greater milestones.
November has been a month for the record books, setting the stage for a full-blown bull market in 2025. December now has the opportunity to build on November’s bullish momentum and push Bitcoin past the $100,000 milestone.
Written by Alexandar Artis
Memes of the month
Start Your Brokerage Account
If you enjoyed this Rake Review, feel free to open an account and gain access to more proprietary research and work with your very own dedicated crypto broker.
No Advice Warning
The information in this newsletter is general only. It should not be taken as constituting professional advice from the author - Stormrake PTY LTD.
Stormrake is not a financial adviser and does not provide financial product advice. You should consider seeking independent legal, financial, taxation or other advice to check how the information relates to your unique circumstances. Stormrake is not liable for any loss caused, whether due to negligence or otherwise arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information provided directly or indirectly, by this newsletter.
Disclaimer
All statements made in this newsletter are made in good faith and we believe they are accurate and reliable. Stormrake does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information that is contained here, except insofar as any liability under statute cannot be excluded. Stormrake, its directors, employees and their representatives do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this newsletter or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person. Unless otherwise specified, copyright of information provided in this newsletter is owned by Stormrake. You may not alter or modify this information in any way, including the removal of this copyright notice.Copyright © 2022 Stormrake Pty Ltd, All rights reserved
